Bitcoin's performance against gold indicates reversal signals amid efforts to maintain $70,000.
Bitcoin has experienced a 14-month bear market against gold, with the BTC/gold ratio reaching historic lows that have previously signaled cycle bottoms, according to data from CoinTelegraph.
Technical Indicators Suggest Reversal
The relative strength index (RSI) for the BTC/gold ratio climbed to 33 after hitting an oversold level of 21 in mid-February, indicating fading bearish momentum. Similarly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has reached its lowest level and is poised for a bullish cross, a pattern that has historically preceded Bitcoin price breakouts of 280% to 620% against gold in 2019, 2021, and 2023.
Analysts at GeoMetric noted that past BTC/gold bear markets lasted 12-14 months with drawdowns of 75% to 84%, and the current cycle, at 13 months and 81% drawdown, aligns with these patterns, pointing to a potential bottom.
Technical analyst James Easto stated that the bottom for Bitcoin versus gold is in, setting the stage for recovery, based on the RSI and MACD signals. The last such bottom in November 2022 led to a 700% rally in Bitcoin price to its all-time high.
Investor Crypto Fergani highlighted that over 13 years, Bitcoin's bear markets against gold typically last about 400 days, with the RSI entering oversold territory, a consistent indicator of market bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin's price must hold above the $68,000-$70,000 support zone, including the 200-week exponential moving average and 50-day simple moving average, to avoid further drops. Analyst AlphaBTC emphasized that maintaining this level could lead to a recovery toward $80,000.
