Ethereum faces potential price drops to $1,200, as an analyst points to historical patterns and current market risks.
Ethereum's price is at risk of falling to $1,200, according to analyst Leshka.eth, who identified a Supertrend setup on the daily chart signaling a possible breakdown.
Ethereum's Historical Price Patterns
The Supertrend indicator previously showed similar bullish flips in October 2025 and January 2026, each leading to 45% and 48% price drops respectively after support levels failed.
In the current setup, Ethereum's price is around $1,990, and a break below this level could trigger the decline to $1,200, aligning with a bear flag pattern observed in recent charts.
Macroeconomic factors are contributing to this risk, including heightened tensions from the US-Israel and Iran conflict, rising recession fears, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts until December 2027.
Ethereum has already dropped more than 17% from its monthly high, with US spot Ether ETFs experiencing about $300 million in net outflows over the same period, indicating reduced demand.
Glassnode data shows weak accumulation among major Ethereum holders; for instance, wallets holding over 10,000 ETH have not increased significantly, and those with 1,000 to 10,000 ETH remain below late-2025 levels.
Smaller cohorts, such as addresses holding 100 to 1,000 ETH, are also trending below last year's peaks, suggesting ongoing distribution and low conviction among investors.
Despite these bearish signals, positive factors include increasing Ether staking and supply on exchanges at ten-year lows, as previously reported.
