As conflicts persist, Iran's ballistic missiles and drones remain active, raising questions about the extent of damage to its military stockpiles.
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have stated that Iran's ballistic missile capacity is 'destroyed' and 'degraded,' but Iran has continued to conduct strikes on Israel and Gulf states during the ongoing war.
According to Burcu Ozcelik of the Royal United Services Institute, Iran's missile launching capability has been reduced but not exhausted, as evidenced by recent attacks including strikes on Tuesday.
Iran's Missile Arsenal
Pre-war estimates from the Israeli military suggest Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles, while some independent experts estimate up to 6,000, including types like Sejjil, Ghadr, and Khorramshahr with ranges up to 2,000 kilometers.
Iran has demonstrated missiles with ranges exceeding previous assessments, as seen in attempted strikes on the UK/US base on Diego Garcia, nearly 4,000 kilometers away.
Drone Capabilities and Replenishment
Iran's drone arsenal includes around 80,000 Shahed drones, according to Matthew Powell of the University of Portsmouth, which are significant for their cost-effectiveness and ability to target infrastructure.
Iran can produce up to 10,000 Shahed drones per month under normal conditions, as stated by Powell, though the war's impact on production is unclear. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Iran is producing missiles even during war, before his reported death in an airstrike.
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence notes that Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, but the exact reduction from recent conflicts remains difficult to assess precisely.
Attacks on Iranian weapon sites by US and Israeli forces have damaged stockpiles, yet Iran maintains leverage through actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz, according to Ozcelik.
Experts from the Stimson Center highlight that Iran's hit rates have improved despite fewer launches, indicating an operational shift in its military strategy.
